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Celta Vigo vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 36 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 17:00

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Levante

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.5%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.4%1-111.3%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.6%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 57.5% 1.74 -10.6%

Draw 25.0% 26.7% 3.75 -3.8%

Away win 23.6% 22.7% 4.40 +2.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 31.0% 33.9% 2.95 -8.6%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo1.7

Levante1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.18

LEVANTE · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.8%

Levante (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Levante 24%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Celta Vigo and 1.1 for Levante (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.76 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Celta Vigo vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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