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Riga FC vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Auda

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.0%0-22.6%0-31.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.1%1-17.0%1-26.0%1-33.5%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.7%2-18.1%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.6%3-16.3%3-25.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-16.3%4+-25.4%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 67.6% 1.48 -24.1%

Draw 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Away win 25.5% 18.2% 5.50 +24.1%

Over 2.5 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Over 3.5 57.4% 42.6% 2.35 +34.9%

BTTS 63.0% 62.5% 1.60 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC2.3

Auda1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 57.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.50

AUDA · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.67)

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -24.1%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Auda (A) 25.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Auda 26%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Riga FC and 1.7 for Auda (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.67 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Riga FC vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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