Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Liepaja vs Ogre United

Liepaja vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 15:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ogre United

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.8%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.7%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-16.0%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 78.1% 1.28 -32.8%

Draw 25.5% 20.8% 4.80 +13.4%

Away win 22.0% 11.6% 8.60 +53.5%

Over 2.5 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 42.0% 2.38 -18.9%

BTTS 52.1% 54.6% 1.83 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja1.8

Ogre United0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.00

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -32.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +13.4%

Ogre United (A) 22.0%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +53.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Ogre United 22%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Liepaja and 0.9 for Ogre United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Liepaja vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions