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Barendrecht vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:30

Barendrecht

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spakenburg

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 92% chance

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.1%0-21.7%0-31.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-00.8%1-12.6%1-24.3%1-34.6%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.0%2-13.3%2-25.3%2-35.7%2-4+10.5%3 3-00.8%3-12.7%3-24.4%3-34.7%3-4+8.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-13.0%4+-24.8%4+-35.2%4+-4+9.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 30.8% 3.25 -4.8%

Draw 16.5% 27.0% 3.70 -39.0%

Away win 54.2% 54.6% 1.83 -0.8%

Over 2.5 92.4% — — —

Over 3.5 82.2% — — —

BTTS 88.0% 74.1% 1.35 +18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob88.0%

A 54% / xG 2.5-3.2 / O2.5 92% / BTTS 88%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.7%

#2 2–2 5.3%

#3 3–3 4.7%

#4 2–4 4.6%

#5 1–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barendrecht2.5

Spakenburg3.2

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 92.4% · O3.5 PROB 82.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.64

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

92%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Barendrecht (H) 29.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.8%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -39.0%

Spakenburg (A) 54.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barendrecht face Spakenburg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barendrecht a 29% chance, the draw 17% and Spakenburg 54%, so Spakenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Barendrecht and 3.2 for Spakenburg (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 92% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 88% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barendrecht are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.29 for Spakenburg. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Barendrecht vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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