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ACV Assen vs HHC Hardenberg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:30

ACV Assen

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HHC Hardenberg

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.5%0-27.8%0-36.3%0-4+6.6%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.4%1-37.5%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.0%2-14.7%2-25.7%2-34.5%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.7% 32.3% 3.10 -45.1%

Draw 18.5% 28.6% 3.50 -35.3%

Away win 63.8% 52.4% 1.91 +21.9%

Over 2.5 69.7% — — —

Over 3.5 48.5% — — —

BTTS 63.6% 66.7% 1.50 -4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.6%

A 64% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 0–2✓ 7.8%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ACV Assen1.2

HHC Hardenberg2.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ACV ASSEN · PPG 0.93

HHC HARDENBERG · PPG 1.36

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.93) vs Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

ACV Assen (H) 17.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -45.1%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -35.3%

HHC Hardenberg (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

ACV Assen face HHC Hardenberg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ACV Assen a 18% chance, the draw 19% and HHC Hardenberg 64%, so HHC Hardenberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for ACV Assen and 2.4 for HHC Hardenberg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ACV Assen are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.36 for HHC Hardenberg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 0-2.

ACV Assen vs HHC Hardenberg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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