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Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:00

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Girona

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.5%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-112.8%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.6%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 43.1% 2.32 +9.0%

Draw 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

Away win 24.2% 33.9% 2.95 -17.2%

Over 2.5 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Over 3.5 19.2% 33.3% 3.00 -25.4%

BTTS 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Vallecano1.3

Girona0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 1.59

GIRONA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Vallecano (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +9.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.9%

Girona (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Vallecano face Girona in Spain - La Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Vallecano a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Girona 24%, so Rayo Vallecano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.9 for Girona (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.94 for Girona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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