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Super Nova vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 17:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tukums

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.8%0-27.0%0-34.8%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.5%1-19.2%1-29.5%1-36.5%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.0%2-16.2%2-26.4%2-34.4%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.4%3-12.8%3-22.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 35.7% 2.80 -10.8%

Draw 26.0% 29.4% 3.40 -7.0%

Away win 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 2.5 63.3% 55.6% 1.80 +13.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 33.3% 3.00 +33.5%

BTTS 59.5% 60.6% 1.65 -1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.5%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.4

Tukums2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.25

TUKUMS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.25), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.0%

Tukums (A) 44.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Tukums 45%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Super Nova and 2.1 for Tukums (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Super Nova vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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