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Grobina vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 15:00

Grobina

PPG 0.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-114.8%0-27.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.4%2-16.1%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 33.4% 39.2% 2.55 -14.8%

Over 2.5 34.7% 51.3% 1.95 -32.3%

Over 3.5 11.9% 29.0% 3.45 -35.4%

BTTS 48.1% 58.8% 1.70 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 14.1%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina0.9

FS Jelgava1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.20

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -11.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

FS Jelgava (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 35% chance, the draw 32% and FS Jelgava 33%, so Grobina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Grobina and 1.0 for FS Jelgava (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.00 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Grobina vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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