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FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

FC Barcelona

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Real Madrid

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.4%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.8%1-110.3%1-26.1%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-16.2%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 62.1% 1.61 -20.6%

Draw 25.6% 21.5% 4.65 +11.4%

Away win 25.1% 23.8% 4.20 +3.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 80.0% 1.25 -25.5%

Over 3.5 37.0% 59.9% 1.67 -38.2%

BTTS 58.8% 75.2% 1.33 -21.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Barcelona1.9

Real Madrid1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BARCELONA · PPG 3.00

REAL MADRID · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

FC Barcelona (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -20.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +11.4%

Real Madrid (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Barcelona face Real Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Barcelona a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Real Madrid 25%, so FC Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Barcelona and 1.2 for Real Madrid (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Barcelona are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Real Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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