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Spain - La Liga Sunday, May 10, 2026 19:00 
FC Barcelona PPG 3.00 
Real Madrid PPG 2.00
Spain - La Liga Sunday, May 10, 2026 19:00 FC Barcelona PPG 3.002-0 HIT CS3
Real Madrid PPG 2.00Draw· +11.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 59.6% Odds: 1.25 -25.5%
Over 3.5 37.0% Odds: 1.67 -38.2%
BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.33 -21.8%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✔
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Barcelona 1.90
Real Madrid 1.18
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -25.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -25.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+11.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+11.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 70 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 51%
O2.5/Under 60%
BTTS/No 64%
Score Hit 56%
ROI -19.9%
Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.3%