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FSV Mainz vs Union Berlin Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:30

FSV Mainz

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Union Berlin

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.9%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.4%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 60.2% 1.66 -20.5%

Draw 26.3% 25.6% 3.90 +1.5%

Away win 25.8% 21.3% 4.70 +12.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Mainz1.7

Union Berlin1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV MAINZ · PPG 1.06

UNION BERLIN · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Mainz (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -20.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.5%

Union Berlin (A) 25.8%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Mainz face Union Berlin in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Mainz a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Union Berlin 26%, so FSV Mainz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FSV Mainz and 1.2 for Union Berlin (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Mainz are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Union Berlin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-3.

FSV Mainz vs Union Berlin Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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