FSV Mainz vs Union Berlin Prediction & Tips

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Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 33 Mewa Arena· Mainz Sunday, May 10, 2026 17:30

FSV Mainz PPG 1.06

1-3 MISS

Union Berlin PPG 0.88

Away· +12.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.9%

Odds: 1.66 EV: -20.5%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +1.5%

Away 25.8%

Odds: 4.70 EV: +12.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.7% Odds: 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% Odds: 2.62 -16.7%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.65 -9.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FSV Mainz

1.66

Union Berlin

1.18

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+12.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)