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FC Koln vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:30

FC Koln

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Heidenheim

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.7%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.4%1-18.4%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.1%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.8%4+-24.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 51.5% 1.94 -3.0%

Draw 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Away win 25.4% 29.0% 3.45 -7.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 67.6% 1.48 -8.7%

Over 3.5 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

BTTS 58.8% 70.4% 1.42 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Koln2.3

Heidenheim1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOLN · PPG 1.19

HEIDENHEIM · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.19) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

FC Koln (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -3.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Heidenheim (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln face Heidenheim in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Heidenheim 25%, so FC Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for FC Koln and 1.3 for Heidenheim (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.38 for Heidenheim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-3.

FC Koln vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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