Today / Spain - La Liga / Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia

Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:15

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Valencia

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.0%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 59.2% 1.69 -24.1%

Draw 28.4% 26.7% 3.75 +3.9%

Away win 26.7% 21.1% 4.75 +16.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Bilbao1.4

Valencia1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 1.71

VALENCIA · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=44.9%

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Bilbao (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -24.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.9%

Valencia (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Bilbao face Valencia in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Bilbao a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Valencia 27%, so Athletic Bilbao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Athletic Bilbao and 1.0 for Valencia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Bilbao are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.76 for Valencia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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