Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Prediction & Tips

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Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 35 San Mamés· Bilbao Sunday, May 10, 2026 14:15

Athletic Bilbao PPG 1.71

0-1 MISS

Valencia PPG 0.76

Away· +16.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.9%

Odds: 1.69 EV: -24.1%

Draw 28.4%

Odds: 3.75 EV: +3.9%

Away 26.7%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +16.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 22.7% Odds: 3.30 -15.0%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.83 -4.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Athletic Bilbao

1.40

Valencia

1.02

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=44.9%