Hamburger SV vs Freiburg Prediction & Tips

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Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 33 Volksparkstadion· Hamburg Sunday, May 10, 2026 13:30

Hamburger SV PPG 1.31

3-2 MISS

Freiburg PPG 0.94

Home· +13.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.4%

Odds: 2.62 EV: +13.7%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -3.2%

Away 30.3%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -25.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.8% Odds: 1.65 -6.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% Odds: 2.62 -15.4%

BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.53 -10.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hamburger SV

1.54

Freiburg

1.32

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+13.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.94)