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Hamburger SV vs Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:30

Hamburger SV

PPG 1.31 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Freiburg

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.5%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.8%1-111.6%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 38.2% 2.62 +13.7%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Away win 30.3% 40.8% 2.45 -25.8%

Over 2.5 56.8% 60.6% 1.65 -6.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.4%

BTTS 58.8% 65.4% 1.53 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV1.5

Freiburg1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV · PPG 1.31

FREIBURG · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +13.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Freiburg (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV face Freiburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Freiburg 30%, so Hamburger SV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hamburger SV and 1.3 for Freiburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.94 for Freiburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Hamburger SV vs Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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