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Mallorca vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Mallorca

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Villarreal

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.2%0-27.3%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.3%1-111.6%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 43.5% 2.30 -22.7%

Draw 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

Away win 41.0% 35.1% 2.85 +16.9%

Over 2.5 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Over 3.5 31.9% 38.5% 2.60 -17.1%

BTTS 57.9% 65.4% 1.53 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.9%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mallorca1.3

Villarreal1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MALLORCA · PPG 1.71

VILLARREAL · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Mallorca (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Villarreal (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mallorca face Villarreal in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mallorca a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Villarreal 41%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mallorca and 1.6 for Villarreal (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mallorca are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.47 for Villarreal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Mallorca vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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