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Real Sociedad vs Real Betis Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Real Sociedad

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Betis

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.6%0-25.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.4%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.6%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.3%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 39.4% 2.54 -4.2%

Draw 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -4.4%

Away win 36.2% 39.4% 2.54 -8.1%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 33.8% 39.2% 2.55 -13.8%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad1.5

Real Betis1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 1.65

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.65), Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -4.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.4%

Real Betis (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad face Real Betis in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Real Betis 36%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Sociedad and 1.4 for Real Betis (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.35 for Real Betis. This match finished 2-2.

Real Sociedad vs Real Betis Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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