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Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Wolfsburg

PPG 0.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bayern Munich

PPG 2.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.6%0-25.1%0-36.6%0-4+18.3%1 1-00.7%1-12.9%1-25.6%1-37.3%1-4+20.1%2 2-00.4%2-11.6%2-23.1%2-34.0%2-4+11.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.1%3-31.5%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.2% 21.7% 4.60 -29.1%

Draw 21.4% 21.7% 4.60 -0.9%

Away win 67.4% 63.7% 1.57 +5.8%

Over 2.5 78.8% 80.0% 1.25 -1.5%

Over 3.5 73.7% 60.6% 1.65 +21.6%

BTTS 58.8% 76.9% 1.30 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 67% / xG 1.1-3.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.3%

#2 1–4 7.1%

#3 0–3 6.6%

#4 0–4 6.5%

#5 1–5 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wolfsburg1.1

Bayern Munich3.9

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 73.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLFSBURG · PPG 0.63

BAYERN MUNICH · PPG 2.63

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Wolfsburg (H) 11.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -29.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.9%

Bayern Munich (A) 67.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wolfsburg face Bayern Munich in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wolfsburg a 11% chance, the draw 21% and Bayern Munich 67%, so Bayern Munich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wolfsburg and 3.9 for Bayern Munich (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wolfsburg are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 2.63 for Bayern Munich. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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