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Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Atletico Madrid

PPG 2.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.9%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.6%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.4%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 47.2% 2.12 +4.5%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Over 2.5 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Over 3.5 28.3% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Madrid1.7

Celta Vigo1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 2.53

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Madrid (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +4.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

Celta Vigo (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Madrid face Celta Vigo in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Madrid a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Celta Vigo 25%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico Madrid and 1.0 for Celta Vigo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Madrid are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.59 for Celta Vigo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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