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O. Grudziadz vs Rekord Bielsko Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

O. Grudziadz

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rekord Bielsko

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.5%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.8%1-19.3%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.8%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.8%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 61.7% 1.62 -20.1%

Draw 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

Away win 25.1% 21.7% 4.60 +9.3%

Over 2.5 60.2% 62.5% 1.60 -3.7%

Over 3.5 41.8% 40.0% 2.50 +4.5%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.1%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Grudziadz2.1

Rekord Bielsko1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

O. GRUDZIADZ · PPG 2.13

REKORD BIELSKO · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

O. Grudziadz (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -20.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.2%

Rekord Bielsko (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Grudziadz face Rekord Bielsko in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Grudziadz a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Rekord Bielsko 25%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for O. Grudziadz and 1.2 for Rekord Bielsko (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Grudziadz are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.29 for Rekord Bielsko. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 2-0.

O. Grudziadz vs Rekord Bielsko Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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