Today / Netherlands - Tweede Divisie / De Treffers vs Spakenburg

De Treffers vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

De Treffers

PPG 2.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spakenburg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.5%0-22.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.6%1-18.0%1-25.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.9%3-16.9%3-24.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.8%4+-24.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

De Treffers2.3

Spakenburg1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DE TREFFERS · PPG 2.07

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

De Treffers (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Spakenburg (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

De Treffers face Spakenburg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Treffers a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Spakenburg 25%, so De Treffers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for De Treffers and 1.4 for Spakenburg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Treffers are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.40 for Spakenburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 0-0.

De Treffers vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Predictions