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De Treffers vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

De Treffers

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spakenburg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.5%0-22.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.6%1-18.0%1-25.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.9%3-16.9%3-24.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.8%4+-24.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

De Treffers2.3

Spakenburg1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DE TREFFERS · PPG 2.07

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

De Treffers (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Spakenburg (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

De Treffers face Spakenburg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Treffers a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Spakenburg 25%, so De Treffers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for De Treffers and 1.4 for Spakenburg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Treffers are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.40 for Spakenburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 0-0.

De Treffers vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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