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Sevilla FC vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:15

Sevilla FC

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Espanyol

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.8%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.5%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 48.8% 2.05 -9.2%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -3.7%

Away win 27.7% 28.2% 3.55 -1.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 25.9% 23.8% 4.20 +5.3%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1✓ 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla FC1.4

Espanyol1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA FC · PPG 1.29

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla FC (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.7%

Espanyol (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla FC face Espanyol in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla FC a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Espanyol 28%, so Sevilla FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sevilla FC and 1.2 for Espanyol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla FC are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Espanyol. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Sevilla FC vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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