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NKP Podhale vs Chojniczanka Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

NKP Podhale

PPG 2.07 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chojniczanka

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 51.3% 1.95 -12.4%

Draw 28.4% 31.3% 3.20 -5.5%

Away win 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NKP Podhale1.4

Chojniczanka1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NKP PODHALE · PPG 2.07

CHOJNICZANKA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

NKP Podhale (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.4%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.5%

Chojniczanka (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

NKP Podhale face Chojniczanka in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NKP Podhale a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Chojniczanka 27%, so NKP Podhale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for NKP Podhale and 1.0 for Chojniczanka (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NKP Podhale are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.60 for Chojniczanka. This match finished 3-2.

NKP Podhale vs Chojniczanka Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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