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Katwijk vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Katwijk

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Koninklijke HFC

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-110.9%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.0%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 69.4% 1.44 -29.0%

Draw 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

Away win 25.1% 20.0% 5.00 +15.3%

Over 2.5 57.2% 66.7% 1.50 -14.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 47.6% 2.10 -32.2%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katwijk1.8

Koninklijke HFC1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KATWIJK · PPG 1.67

KONINKLIJKE HFC · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Katwijk (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -29.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.4%

Koninklijke HFC (A) 25.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Katwijk face Koninklijke HFC in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katwijk a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Koninklijke HFC 25%, so Katwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Katwijk and 1.1 for Koninklijke HFC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katwijk are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.47 for Koninklijke HFC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Katwijk vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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