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Stuttgart vs Leverkusen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Stuttgart

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leverkusen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 73% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.8%0-23.9%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.7%1-19.2%1-27.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.4%3-15.5%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 46.5% 2.15 -11.0%

Draw 25.0% 25.3% 3.95 -0.8%

Away win 33.6% 35.2% 2.84 -4.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 75.2% 1.33 -17.9%

Over 3.5 46.5% 54.6% 1.83 -14.9%

BTTS 62.5% 76.9% 1.30 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stuttgart1.9

Leverkusen1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STUTTGART · PPG 2.25

LEVERKUSEN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Stuttgart (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -11.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.8%

Leverkusen (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stuttgart face Leverkusen in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stuttgart a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Leverkusen 34%, so Stuttgart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stuttgart and 1.6 for Leverkusen (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stuttgart are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Leverkusen. This match finished 3-1.

Stuttgart vs Leverkusen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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