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RB Leipzig vs Sankt Pauli Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

RB Leipzig

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sankt Pauli

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home 73% chance

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.3%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.0%1-17.9%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.4%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-17.7%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 77.5% 1.29 -21.4%

Draw 22.0% 19.2% 5.20 +8.6%

Away win 17.1% 10.3% 9.70 +39.5%

Over 2.5 60.2% 67.6% 1.48 -10.9%

Over 3.5 39.0% 46.5% 2.15 -16.2%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Leipzig2.4

Sankt Pauli0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RB LEIPZIG · PPG 2.19

SANKT PAULI · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

73%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs P(Home)=60.9%

Win probability 1X2

RB Leipzig (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -21.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +8.6%

Sankt Pauli (A) 17.1%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +39.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Leipzig face Sankt Pauli in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Leipzig a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Sankt Pauli 17%, so RB Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for RB Leipzig and 0.8 for Sankt Pauli (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Leipzig are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 0.56 for Sankt Pauli. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.5%. This match finished 2-1.

RB Leipzig vs Sankt Pauli Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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