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Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Hoffenheim

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Werder Bremen

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.4%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.1%1-18.1%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.6%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-17.9%4+-24.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 69.0% 1.45 -23.6%

Draw 24.7% 20.0% 5.00 +14.1%

Away win 22.6% 18.2% 5.50 +14.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 72.5% 1.38 -14.8%

Over 3.5 46.4% 51.8% 1.93 -10.4%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoffenheim2.4

Werder Bremen1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HOFFENHEIM · PPG 1.81

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Hoffenheim (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -23.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.1%

Werder Bremen (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim face Werder Bremen in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Werder Bremen 23%, so Hoffenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hoffenheim and 1.1 for Werder Bremen (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.81 for Werder Bremen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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