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FC Augsburg vs Monchengladbach Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

FC Augsburg

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monchengladbach

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.6%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 50.5% 1.98 -14.1%

Draw 26.3% 26.7% 3.75 -0.8%

Away win 30.3% 29.9% 3.35 +1.5%

Over 2.5 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 43.5% 2.30 -27.6%

BTTS 57.6% 67.6% 1.48 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.6%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 5.9%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Augsburg1.5

Monchengladbach1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC AUGSBURG · PPG 1.44

MONCHENGLADBACH · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

FC Augsburg (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -14.1%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.8%

Monchengladbach (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Augsburg face Monchengladbach in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Monchengladbach 30%, so FC Augsburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Augsburg and 1.3 for Monchengladbach (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Augsburg are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Monchengladbach. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-1.

FC Augsburg vs Monchengladbach Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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