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Rijnsburgse B. vs Jong Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Rijnsburgse B.

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jong Sparta

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 77% chance

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.3%0-22.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.2%1-15.9%1-25.4%1-33.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.4%3-16.3%3-25.8%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.2%4+-26.7%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 73.5% 1.36 -32.0%

Draw 24.2% 20.8% 4.80 +9.7%

Away win 25.7% 20.0% 5.00 +17.1%

Over 2.5 69.8% 80.0% 1.25 -12.8%

Over 3.5 63.7% 62.5% 1.60 +1.9%

BTTS 66.7% 73.5% 1.36 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.7%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rijnsburgse B.2.5

Jong Sparta1.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIJNSBURGSE B. · PPG 1.80

JONG SPARTA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

77%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Rijnsburgse B. (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -32.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.7%

Jong Sparta (A) 25.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijnsburgse B. face Jong Sparta in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijnsburgse B. a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Jong Sparta 26%, so Rijnsburgse B. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Rijnsburgse B. and 1.8 for Jong Sparta (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijnsburgse B. are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.40 for Jong Sparta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 4-2.

Rijnsburgse B. vs Jong Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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