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Jong Almere C. vs RKAV Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Jong Almere C.

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

RKAV Volendam

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.5%0-22.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.9%1-17.7%1-26.2%1-33.3%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.1%3-16.5%3-25.1%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-16.1%4+-24.9%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 25.3% 34.7% 2.88 -16.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 53.3% 49.5% 2.02 +7.7%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Almere C.2.2

RKAV Volendam1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG ALMERE C. · PPG 1.73

RKAV VOLENDAM · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Almere C. (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.9%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

RKAV Volendam (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Almere C. face RKAV Volendam in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Almere C. a 50% chance, the draw 25% and RKAV Volendam 25%, so Jong Almere C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Jong Almere C. and 1.6 for RKAV Volendam (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Almere C. are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.27 for RKAV Volendam. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Jong Almere C. vs RKAV Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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