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Barendrecht vs HSV Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Barendrecht

PPG 1.53 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HSV Hoek

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.1%0-26.1%0-34.9%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.1%1-17.4%1-28.9%1-37.1%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.4%2-35.2%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-23.1%3-32.5%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Draw 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Away win 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 3.5 53.8% 52.1% 1.92 +3.3%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob62.5%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barendrecht1.5

HSV Hoek2.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.53

HSV HOEK · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Barendrecht (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

HSV Hoek (A) 54.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barendrecht face HSV Hoek in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barendrecht a 23% chance, the draw 23% and HSV Hoek 54%, so HSV Hoek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Barendrecht and 2.4 for HSV Hoek (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barendrecht are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.80 for HSV Hoek. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 4-2.

Barendrecht vs HSV Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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