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Oberachern vs Normannia Gmund Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Oberachern

PPG 1.53 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Normannia Gmund

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.8%0-25.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.9%1-110.7%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 36.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 38.1% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberachern1.6

Normannia Gmund1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERACHERN · PPG 1.53

NORMANNIA GMUND · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Oberachern (H) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Normannia Gmund (A) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberachern face Normannia Gmund in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberachern a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Normannia Gmund 36%, so Oberachern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Oberachern and 1.5 for Normannia Gmund (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberachern are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.07 for Normannia Gmund. This match finished 3-2.

Oberachern vs Normannia Gmund Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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