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Portsmouth vs Leicester City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Portsmouth

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leicester City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.4%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 44.2% 2.26 +4.4%

Draw 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Away win 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 25.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.2%

BTTS 50.7% 54.6% 1.83 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0✓ 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth1.5

Leicester City1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 1.24

LEICESTER CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +4.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Leicester City (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth face Leicester City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Leicester City 28%, so Portsmouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portsmouth and 1.1 for Leicester City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.00 for Leicester City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Portsmouth vs Leicester City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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