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Denzlingen vs Nottingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Denzlingen

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nottingen

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.1%0-24.7%0-34.8%0-4+7.9%1 1-01.5%1-14.7%1-27.2%1-37.4%1-4+12.1%2 2-01.2%2-13.6%2-25.6%2-35.7%2-4+9.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.9%3-22.8%3-32.9%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.0%4+-21.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.1% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 63.9% — — —

Over 2.5 72.4% — — —

Over 3.5 67.4% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 64% / xG 1.5-3.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.4%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 2–3 5.7%

#4 1–4✓ 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denzlingen1.5

Nottingen3.1

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 67.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DENZLINGEN · PPG 0.50

NOTTINGEN · PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.87) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Denzlingen (H) 15.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nottingen (A) 63.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Denzlingen face Nottingen in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denzlingen a 15% chance, the draw 21% and Nottingen 64%, so Nottingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Denzlingen and 3.1 for Nottingen (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denzlingen are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.87 for Nottingen. This match finished 1-4.

Denzlingen vs Nottingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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