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Millwall vs QP Rangers Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Millwall

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

QP Rangers

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.6%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.6%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.5%3-16.2%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -15.3%

Away win 18.7% 21.7% 4.60 -14.0%

Over 2.5 53.6% 55.6% 1.80 -3.5%

Over 3.5 31.4% 33.3% 3.00 -5.8%

BTTS 51.9% 57.1% 1.75 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.9%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.1%

#2 1–1 10.6%

#3 2–0✓ 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millwall1.9

QP Rangers0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLWALL · PPG 1.71

QP RANGERS · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Millwall (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +0.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -15.3%

QP Rangers (A) 18.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millwall face QP Rangers in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millwall a 59% chance, the draw 22% and QP Rangers 19%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Millwall and 0.9 for QP Rangers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millwall are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.19 for QP Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Millwall vs QP Rangers Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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