Derby County vs Oxford Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

Derby County face Oxford Utd in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derby County a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Oxford Utd 16%, so Derby County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Derby County and 0.8 for Oxford Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derby County are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Oxford Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 1-0.