Today / England - Championship / Derby County vs Oxford Utd

Derby County vs Oxford Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Derby County

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Oxford Utd

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+15.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 52.6% 1.90 +15.5%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -21.8%

Away win 16.2% 25.0% 4.00 -35.2%

Over 2.5 46.7% 50.0% 2.00 -6.6%

Over 3.5 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -10.9%

BTTS 44.9% 54.6% 1.83 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.9%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 13.9%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derby County1.8

Oxford Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DERBY COUNTY · PPG 1.57

OXFORD UTD · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Derby County (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +15.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.8%

Oxford Utd (A) 16.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -35.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derby County face Oxford Utd in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derby County a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Oxford Utd 16%, so Derby County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Derby County and 0.8 for Oxford Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derby County are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Oxford Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Derby County vs Oxford Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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