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Elche vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Elche

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alaves

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.1%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 45.0% 2.22 +9.4%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Over 2.5 53.1% 51.8% 1.93 +2.5%

Over 3.5 29.6% 29.9% 3.35 -0.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elche1.6

Alaves1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ELCHE · PPG 1.82

ALAVES · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Elche (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +9.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Alaves (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elche face Alaves in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elche a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Alaves 25%, so Elche are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Elche and 1.1 for Alaves (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elche are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.71 for Alaves. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Elche vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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