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Levante vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 35 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 19:00

Levante

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Osasuna

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.5%0-26.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-17.6%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 39.1% 2.56 -7.1%

Draw 28.2% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

Away win 35.5% 36.8% 2.72 -3.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levante1.1

Osasuna1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVANTE · PPG 1.18

OSASUNA · PPG 0.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.59)

Win probability 1X2

Levante (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -7.1%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.9%

Osasuna (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levante face Osasuna in Spain - La Liga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levante a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Osasuna 36%, so Levante are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Levante and 1.2 for Osasuna (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levante are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.59 for Osasuna. This match finished 3-2.

Levante vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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