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Dortmund vs E. Frankfurt Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Dortmund

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

E. Frankfurt

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.7%1-16.8%1-24.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.5%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-19.8%4+-25.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 66.7% 1.50 -13.0%

Draw 20.7% 20.6% 4.85 +0.2%

Away win 21.3% 19.6% 5.10 +5.2%

Over 2.5 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 3.5 53.4% 52.6% 1.90 +1.5%

BTTS 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dortmund2.6

E. Frankfurt1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DORTMUND · PPG 2.38

E. FRANKFURT · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Dortmund (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +0.2%

E. Frankfurt (A) 21.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dortmund face E. Frankfurt in Germany - Bundesliga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dortmund a 58% chance, the draw 21% and E. Frankfurt 21%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Dortmund and 1.2 for E. Frankfurt (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dortmund are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.19 for E. Frankfurt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Dortmund vs E. Frankfurt Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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