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Erlbach vs Schalding Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:30

Erlbach

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Schalding

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.6%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 25.8% — — —

Over 2.5 52.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.0% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 2–0✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erlbach1.6

Schalding1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ERLBACH · PPG 2.00

SCHALDING · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Erlbach (H) 47.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schalding (A) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Erlbach face Schalding in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erlbach a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Schalding 26%, so Erlbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Erlbach and 1.1 for Schalding (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erlbach are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.21 for Schalding. This match finished 2-0.

Erlbach vs Schalding Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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