Today / Latvia - Virsliga / RFS vs Liepaja

RFS vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00

RFS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Liepaja

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.2%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.8%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 75.2% 1.33 -32.2%

Draw 26.4% 22.7% 4.40 +9.7%

Away win 22.6% 12.5% 8.00 +48.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 60.6% 1.65 -23.3%

Over 3.5 24.2% 38.5% 2.60 -22.3%

BTTS 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS1.7

Liepaja0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.00

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -32.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +9.7%

Liepaja (A) 22.6%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +48.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Liepaja 23%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for RFS and 0.8 for Liepaja (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.5%. This match finished 5-0.

RFS vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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