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Daugavpils vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 14:30

Daugavpils

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Riga FC

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.5%0-28.2%0-36.9%0-4+8.0%1 1-02.9%1-17.4%1-29.3%1-37.8%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.7%2-14.2%2-25.3%2-34.4%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.6%3-22.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.7% 11.4% 8.80 +17.6%

Draw 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

Away win 62.5% 78.1% 1.28 -20.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Over 3.5 49.8% 45.5% 2.20 +9.6%

BTTS 58.8% 55.6% 1.80 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob58.8%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3✓ 7.8%

#5 0–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.1

Riga FC2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.80

RIGA FC · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.80) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 14.7%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +17.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.1%

Riga FC (A) 62.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Riga FC in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 15% chance, the draw 23% and Riga FC 63%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Daugavpils and 2.5 for Riga FC (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.17 for Riga FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Daugavpils vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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