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Auda vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 11 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 17:00

Auda

PPG 1.50 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Grobina

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.0%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.6%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 71.4% 1.40 -33.1%

Draw 27.1% 23.8% 4.20 +8.3%

Away win 25.2% 14.7% 6.80 +42.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Over 3.5 19.3% 33.9% 2.95 -25.8%

BTTS 51.0% 51.8% 1.93 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda1.4

Grobina0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.50

GROBINA · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -33.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.3%

Grobina (A) 25.2%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +42.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Grobina 25%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Auda and 0.9 for Grobina (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.80 for Grobina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 7-0.

Auda vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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