Today / Latvia - Virsliga / FS Jelgava vs Super Nova

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 15:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Super Nova

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 34.7% — a clear edge.

+53.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.9%0-210.7%0-36.4%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-02.8%2-15.0%2-24.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.1% 44.4% 2.25 -30.2%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 53.2% 34.7% 2.88 +53.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

Over 3.5 29.0% 27.0% 3.70 +4.4%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob52.3%

A 53% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 0–2 10.7%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava0.9

Super Nova1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.60

SUPER NOVA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 22.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -30.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

Super Nova (A) 53.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +53.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Super Nova 53%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for FS Jelgava and 1.8 for Super Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.2%. This match finished 1-0.

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions