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Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 29 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Riga

PPG 2.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

BFC Daugavpils

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Home 73% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.3%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.3%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.5%4+-110.6%4+-24.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 75.2% 1.33 -9.8%

Draw 16.3% 20.0% 5.00 -11.1%

Away win 15.9% 15.4% 6.50 +2.0%

Over 2.5 66.0% 71.4% 1.40 -7.6%

Over 3.5 44.9% 52.4% 1.91 -14.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 66.4% 76.9% 1.30 -13.7%

Away O1.5 23.0% 28.6% 3.50 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 102 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 22.9%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga2.7

BFC Daugavpils0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA · PPG 2.71

BFC DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.96 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -9.8%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.1%

BFC Daugavpils (A) 15.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga face BFC Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga a 68% chance, the draw 16% and BFC Daugavpils 16%, so Riga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Riga and 0.8 for BFC Daugavpils (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.85 for BFC Daugavpils.

Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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