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Ružomberok vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Ružomberok

PPG 0.96 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 56% chance

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-111.1%0-210.3%0-36.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.8%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.8%2-32.9%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Draw 21.2% 29.4% 3.40 -16.8%

Away win 56.4% 57.1% 1.75 -1.3%

Over 2.5 57.3% 57.1% 1.75 +0.3%

Over 3.5 35.3% 36.4% 2.75 -2.9%

BTTS 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 58.3% 55.6% 1.80 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.7%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.3%

#2 1–1 10.7%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ružomberok1.0

Spartak Trnava1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RUŽOMBEROK · PPG 0.96

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.96

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

DANGER

xG gap -0.89 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ružomberok (H) 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.8%

Spartak Trnava (A) 56.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ružomberok face Spartak Trnava in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ružomberok a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Spartak Trnava 56%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ružomberok and 1.9 for Spartak Trnava (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ružomberok are averaging 0.96 points per game versus 1.96 for Spartak Trnava. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Ružomberok vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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