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Stal Mielec vs Odra Opole Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLL

UPCOMING

Odra Opole

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.9%0-24.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.3%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-15.0%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 46.5% 2.15 -8.4%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 34.3% 34.5% 2.90 -0.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Home O1.5 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Away O1.5 40.8% 40.0% 2.50 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.2%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Mielec1.6

Odra Opole1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.41

ODRA OPOLE · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stal Mielec (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Odra Opole (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Mielec face Odra Opole in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Mielec a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Odra Opole 34%, so Stal Mielec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stal Mielec and 1.3 for Odra Opole (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Mielec are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.26 for Odra Opole. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Stal Mielec vs Odra Opole Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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