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Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Pogoń Siedlce

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

UPCOMING

Puszcza Niepołomice

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.9%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.0%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.5%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 32.3% 3.10 +45.1%

Draw 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away win 25.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

Over 2.5 44.3% 48.1% 2.08 -7.9%

Over 3.5 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

BTTS 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 33.3% 3.00 +15.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 44.4% 2.25 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Siedlce1.3

Puszcza Niepołomice0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ SIEDLCE · PPG 1.47

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE · PPG 0.97

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Siedlce (H) 46.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +45.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Puszcza Niepołomice (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Siedlce face Puszcza Niepołomice in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Siedlce a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Puszcza Niepołomice 25%, so Pogoń Siedlce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.9 for Puszcza Niepołomice (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Siedlce are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.97 for Puszcza Niepołomice. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +28.0%.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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