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Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Głogów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Miedz Legnica

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

UPCOMING

Chrobry Głogów

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.4%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.4%1-112.8%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.7%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 55.6% 1.80 -19.5%

Draw 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Away win 29.1% 27.0% 3.70 +4.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 52.9% 64.5% 1.55 -18.0%

Home O1.5 39.5% 57.8% 1.73 -31.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miedz Legnica1.4

Chrobry Głogów1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 1.79

CHROBRY GŁOGÓW · PPG 1.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miedz Legnica (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -19.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

Chrobry Głogów (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miedz Legnica face Chrobry Głogów in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miedz Legnica a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Chrobry Głogów 29%, so Miedz Legnica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Miedz Legnica and 1.1 for Chrobry Głogów (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.88 for Chrobry Głogów. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Głogów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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