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Polonia Bytom vs Podbeskidzie Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDD

UPCOMING

Podbeskidzie

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+11.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.1%0-23.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.5%1-18.6%1-26.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.9%3-16.1%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.1%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 43.5% 2.30 +8.8%

Draw 22.3% 31.3% 3.20 -17.2%

Away win 30.4% 38.2% 2.62 -20.3%

Over 2.5 66.8% 59.9% 1.67 +11.6%

Over 3.5 44.9% 38.2% 2.62 +17.6%

BTTS 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Home O1.5 60.2% 50.0% 2.00 +20.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 47% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Bytom2.1

Podbeskidzie1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.60

PODBESKIDZIE · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Bytom (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +8.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.2%

Podbeskidzie (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Bytom face Podbeskidzie in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Bytom a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Podbeskidzie 30%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Polonia Bytom and 1.6 for Podbeskidzie (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Bytom are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.17 for Podbeskidzie. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +47.6%.

Polonia Bytom vs Podbeskidzie Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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