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Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Stal Rzeszów

PPG 0.97 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

UPCOMING

Polonia Warszawa

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.1%0-27.8%0-34.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.0%2-16.8%2-25.8%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

Over 2.5 56.4% 63.7% 1.57 -11.5%

Over 3.5 35.1% 42.0% 2.38 -16.5%

BTTS 57.1% 66.7% 1.50 -14.3%

Home O1.5 33.6% 42.0% 2.38 -20.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.1%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Rzeszów1.2

Polonia Warszawa1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL RZESZÓW · PPG 0.97

POLONIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stal Rzeszów (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Polonia Warszawa (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Rzeszów face Polonia Warszawa in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Rzeszów a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Polonia Warszawa 45%, so Polonia Warszawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Stal Rzeszów and 1.7 for Polonia Warszawa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Rzeszów are averaging 0.97 points per game versus 1.73 for Polonia Warszawa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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