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Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Espanyol

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Real Madrid

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.6%0-29.0%0-35.1%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.6%2-16.1%2-25.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.2%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 22.5% 4.45 -0.8%

Draw 27.5% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

Away win 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 2.5 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Over 3.5 30.1% 41.7% 2.40 -27.8%

BTTS 55.5% 64.5% 1.55 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.5%

A 50% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2✓ 9.0%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.1

Real Madrid1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.38

REAL MADRID · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

62%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 22.3%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -0.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.2%

Real Madrid (A) 50.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Real Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 22% chance, the draw 28% and Real Madrid 50%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Espanyol and 1.7 for Real Madrid (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.94 for Real Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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